"When is the next Fed meeting?" is a question that hasn't weighed this heavily on anxious investors' minds in probably four decades.
Which is fair enough, really. The worst bout of inflation to hit the U.S. economy in 40 years peaked more than a year ago, and yet the Federal Reserve has yet to abandon the most aggressive campaign of interest rate hikes since the late Carter and early Reagan administrations.
The central bank's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) made the widely expected move of leaving interest rates unchanged when it concluded it last policy meeting in September.
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If there was any sort of surprise, it was that policymakers expect stronger economic growth to keep interest rates higher for longer through much of next year. Inflationary pressures have a majority of FOMC members forecasting the need to keep interest rates near current levels for longer than the market had hoped.
The likely path of interest rates moved higher because "economic activity has been stronger than we expected," Powell said at a press conference.
"Although Fed officials did not increase the median federal funds rate they had estimated during the release of the dot plot in June of this year, the new projections show a still very hawkish Fed as they took away two rate decreases that had been in place during the release of the June SEP and corresponding dot plot," wrote Eugenio Alemán, chief economist at Raymond James.
It goes without saying that more rate hikes are the last thing everyone from investors to would-be home buyers wants to see.
After all, who can forget that rising interest rates sparked turmoil in the banking sector? Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failed, Credit Suisse (CS) was forced into the arms of competitor UBS (UBS) and First Republic Bank had to be rescued by JPMorgan Chase (JPM).
And surely no one can forget that the fastest pace of rate hikes in four decades absolutely clobbered equity markets in 2022. The S&P 500 generated a total return (price change plus dividends) of -18% last year.
Meanwhile, the economic data aren't conclusively helping the case for lower interest rates – even as rate increases put stress on the banking sector and threaten to push the economy into recession.
Headline inflation rose by more than economists were expecting last month, per the September Consumer Price Index (CPI), supporting the view that higher for longer interest rates will be necessary to bring inflation down to the Federal Reserve's long-term target.
"September's CPI demonstrates that progress in lowering inflation ahead is likely to prove slower-going than it has been over the past year," writes Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo Economics. "However, the downward trend remains in place in our view, with the core CPI set to recede further over the coming year as shelter disinflation resumes, supply-related pressures ease and consumers grow more price sensitive."
As for the bigger picture, although economists as a group have become more optimistic about the path of the economy, they still put the odds of a recession hitting in the next 12 months at 54%. They have good reasons to remain cautious. The bond market is awash in inverted yield curves, for one thing, and that's not very reassuring at all. The New York Fed's yield-curve model gives a 56% probability to the U.S. entering a recession over the next 12 months.
Separately, a survey of professional forecasters by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia projects real GDP growth of just 1.3% this year. Other studies predict similarly underwhelming growth. For context, in the decade prior to the pandemic, GDP grew at an average annual rate of 2.3%.
Most importantly, there's the labor market, which remains stronger than the Fed would probably like. Indeed, a September jobs report that showed the pace of hiring sizzled last month keeps the Federal Reserve on track to maintain its higher for longer policy on interest rates, experts say.
When you consider the Fed's dual mandate of promoting both "maximum" employment and stable prices against the backdrop of financial sector stress and rising recession odds, no wonder investors are obsessed with the question of "when is the next Fed meeting?"
The next Fed meeting: what to expect
For the record, the central bank's rate-setting committee is called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
As you can see from the FOMC meeting calendar below, the committee meets eight times a year. These meetings last two days, and conclude with the FOMC releasing its policy decision at 2 pm Eastern time. The Fed chief then holds a press conference at 2:30 pm. (Pro tip: as closely scrutinized as the Fed statement might be, market participants are usually even more keen on what the Fed chair has to say in the press conference.)
As for the next Fed meeting, it begins on October 31 and will end with a policy statement on November 1 at 2 pm Eastern.
The FOMC has the fed funds rate sitting at 22-year high. For now, at least, the market thinks the Fed is set to hit the pause button once again.
Indeed, as of October 31, interest rate traders assigned a 97% probability to the FOMC leaving the short-term federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 5.25% to 5.50%, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
By the same token, traders bet there was a 3% chance of the Fed increasing the fed funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said the central bank's decision will be "data dependent," so it's really up to forthcoming economic data to play ball.
Either way, for those wondering "when is the next Fed meeting?," have a look at the schedule, courtesy of the FOMC, below.
2023 Fed meetings calendar
- January 31 to February 1
- March 21 to 22
- May 2 to 3
- June 13 to 14
- July 25 to 26
- September 19 to 20
- October 31 to November 1
- December 12 to 13
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