When is the Next CPI Report?

"When is the next CPI report?" was a question no one was asking back in the days of 2% inflation readings.

Alas, those days are long gone. Inflation hit a four-decade high in 2022, prompting the Federal Reserve to embark on its most aggressive campaign of interest rate hikes since the late Carter and early Reagan administrations.

Though inflation peaked more than a year ago, the fact remains that it's still too high for the central bank's comfort. That's why the Consumer Price Index or CPI report has become pretty much the star of the economic data calendar.

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Markets desperately want the Fed to stop raising interest rates – and especially look forward to a time when the central bank pivots to rate cuts – but that won't happen until after inflation is under control. There's also the very real fear that rising rates could cause the economy to fall into a recession.

This explains the market's obsession with the next CPI report. And the one after that, and the one after that.

For the record, the CPI report is released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, based on price data collected over the course of the month.

Per the BLS, prices for the goods and services used to calculate the CPI are collected in 75 urban areas throughout the country and from about 23,000 retail and service establishments. Data on rents are collected from about 50,000 landlords or tenants. The weight for an item is derived from reported expenditures on that item as estimated by the Consumer Expenditure Survey.

The CPI report is broken down into many subcategories, but the two main ones you'll hear most about on CPI day are headline CPI and core CPI. The headline number is the main inflation gauge. Core CPI excludes volatile food and energy prices, and is considered to be a better predictor of future inflation. The data are expressed as percent changes, and are measured both month-to-month and year-over-year. 

As for the next CPI report, the October inflation figures are slated for release by the BLS on November 14 at 8:30 am Eastern time. The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's Nowcast predicts headline inflation in October to increase by 3.4%, or down from the 3.7% rate seen in the September CPI report. On a monthly basis, October inflation is forecast to rise 0.2%, or slower than the 0.4% increase seen the prior month.

October's core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to increase 4.2% annually and 0.3% on a monthly basis. September's core CPI rose 4.1% year-over-year and 0.3% on a monthly basis.

The inflation data will certainly influence what the central bank decides to do at the next Fed meeting. The FOMC left interest rates unchanged when it last met in September. The move followed a pause at the previous FOMC meeting.

As for the next FOMC confab wrapping up on November 1, market participants expect the Fed to pause once again. As of October 16, CME Group's FedWatch Tool assigned a 90% probability to the central bank keeping the fed funds rate unchanged at a target range of 5.25% to 5.5%.

By the same token, traders bet there was a 10% chance of the Fed raising the fed funds rate by a 25 basis points, or a quarter of a percentage point (0.25%). Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said the central bank's decision will be "data dependent," so it's really up to forthcoming economic data to play ball.  

To keep tabs on when the next CPI report lands, please see the schedule of release dates, courtesy of the BLS, below. 

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