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The Senate may lose most of its moderates in the next election cycle, either to retirement or to escalating partisanship and polarization that makes it hard for moderates of either party to thrive in Washington.
The latest casualty: Mitt Romney (R-UT), who recently announced he will not seek reelection next year amid tension with fellow Republicans. But others will follow. Neither Kyrsten Sinema (AZ), a former Democrat who is now an independent, nor Joe Manchin (D-WV) have officially decided whether to run next year. But both will struggle to win if they do. The same is true of Jon Tester (D-MT), who is vying for a fourth term in the Senate.
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Expect dealmaking in Congress to become even more difficult. All of the lawmakers mentioned so far played a vital role in facilitating agreements to pass legislation like the bipartisan infrastructure bill or, at the very least, provided pivotal votes. Without them, Congress will OK even fewer major bills.
But centrists are not extinct quite yet. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), both longtime moderates, are not up for reelection in 2024 and plan to stick around for a while. As does Todd Young (R-IN), a conservative lawmaker with a strong track record of reaching across the aisle.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.
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