David Payne
David is both staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, overseeing Kiplinger forecasts for the U.S. and world economies. Previously, he was senior principal economist in the Center for Forecasting and Modeling at IHS/GlobalInsight, and an economist in the Chief Economist's Office of the U.S. Department of Commerce. David has co-written weekly reports on economic conditions since 1992, and has forecasted GDP and its components since 1995, beating the Blue Chip Indicators forecasts two-thirds of the time. David is a Certified Business Economist as recognized by the National Association for Business Economics. He has two master's degrees and is ABD in economics from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Latest articles by David Payne
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Interest Rates Outlook: Rates to Peak Soon
Economic Forecasts The 10-year Treasury note’s yield briefly touched 5%, but a peak should be close as the economy slows.
By David Payne Last updated
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Cargo Thefts on the Rise: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter Organized crime rings are targeting goods in shipments.
By David Payne Published
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Kiplinger Inflation Outlook: Inflation Coming Down. Slowly.
Economic Forecasts Core inflation slows to 4.1%, but larger declines won’t be seen until February.
By David Payne Last updated
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Kiplinger Jobs Outlook: Job Growth Surprisingly Strong in September
Economic Forecasts Pent-up labor demand will likely keep the economy out of recession.
By David Payne Last updated
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Kiplinger's GDP Outlook: Recession Odds Decline
Economic Forecasts There’s now a 30% chance of a recession in early 2024, down from 40%.
By David Payne Last updated
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Is the Economy Inching Toward a Recession?: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter The odds of the U.S. tipping into a recession could depend on how a few key issues are resolved in the coming months.
By David Payne Published
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Kiplinger's Retail Outlook: Consumer Spending Likely to Ease
Economic Forecasts Consumer spending is still rising after the Prime Day surge but should start to slow.
By David Payne Last updated
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COVID Hospitalization Rates See an Uptick As Winter Looms — The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter A new Omicron booster is available, but the elderly are still at risk and winter is right around the corner.
By David Payne Published
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Will the U.S. Dodge a Recession?: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Kiplinger Economic Forecasts The labor market is healthy enough to dodge a recession, even though job growth is lethargic.
By David Payne Published
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Five Reasons Your Healthcare Costs Will Ease: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts From technical advancements to cheaper drugs, healthcare cost relief is coming.
By David Payne Published
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Global Freight Costs Settle as Lumber Prices Rise: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts Freight shipping costs for air cargo are lowering to pre-pandemic levels as lumber prices jump due to Canadian wildfires and new home builds.
By David Payne Published
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Kiplinger's Economic Outlooks
Economic Forecasts Regularly updated insights on the economy’s next moves.
By David Payne Last updated
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Consumers Still Spending but Looking For Deals: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts Consumers are shopping more during major online sales, but while total sales are up, the average purchase cost dipped.
By David Payne Published
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UPS and UAW Labor Disputes Rage Over Wage Fights: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts United Auto Workers are at a standstill in negotiations with the Big Three automakers, and UPS has narrowly avoided a Teamsters strike, for now.
By Sean Lengell Published
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Business Spending Outlook: Caution Prevails as Economy Slows
Economic Forecasts Business spending will be on a slowing trend as they conserve cash because of the uncertain outlook and tighter bank lending.
By David Payne Last updated
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Auto Market Recovers Slowly but Deals Still Hard to Find: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts Understand how the auto market is slowly recovering as car inventory improves. Buyers have more options, but interest rates are still high.
By David Payne Published
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Recession Delayed to 2024, If Any: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts Rising interest rates haven’t slowed consumer spending enough to bring the economy into a recession so far, but it could still be on the horizon.
By David Payne Published
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Risk of Fall Government Shutdown: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts The latest Congress stalemate risks a government shutdown in October 2023, spending cuts and a dent in GDP growth.
By David Payne Published
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China’s Economy Weakened by Low House Prices and Falling Exports: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts China’s economy lost momentum in May due in part to fewer exports and declining housing prices, but the country’s fast fashion retailers are booming.
By David Payne Published
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Cooling Labor Market Can Help Inflation Come Down: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts Inflation could ease further as the labor market cools, with unemployment edging up and more workers who are reluctant to quit.
By David Payne Published
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U.S. Debt on Course to Balloon Before It Shrinks: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts See why U.S. debt will continue to rise, thanks to factors such as inflation, Medicare, and Social Security spending.
By David Payne Published
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Mixed Bag on Business Costs as Manufacturing Costs Fall, Oil is Headed Up: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts Mixed bag on business costs as manufacturing and gas prices fall, but oil is up: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
By David Payne Published
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Spending Cuts Could Trigger Deeper Slowdown: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts Spending Cuts Could Trigger Deeper Slowdown: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
By David Payne Last updated
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Shortage of electrical engineers to power labor market growth: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts A lack of skilled graduates and funding are contributing to the shortage.
By David Payne Published
Economic Forecasts